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The single currency (EUR) returns to rise above 1.16 against the US dollar (USD), after falling just above 1.15. In fact, in recent days, the Italian political crisis has reached a new turning point. The President of the Republic Mattarella rejected the appointment of the Minister of Economy and Finance of the President in charge of Conte, who threw in the towel and abandoned any attempt to form a government, putting the mandate back in.
This triggered an institutional crisis unprecedented, with the populist forces of Lega and 5S who shout at the coup and want to put the President under indictment.
The reasons given by the Head of State have been focused on accessing Euroscepticism demonstrated by Professor Savona, the candidate of the two populist parties by way of XX September. Being the Minister of Economy the business card for investors in government bonds and the guarantor of their solvency, Mattarella has judged the proposed figure as unable to protect the interests of the country and its credibility on financial markets.
markets first reacted with euphoria at the news, also due to the new President of the Council in charge, Carlo Cottarelli, an IMF technocrat. Later, however, sales started to exceed purchases and the EUR / USD exchange rate fell to 1.15 from 1.17 that it had managed to achieve overnight . The markets have understood, in fact, that the "tear" imposed by President Mattarella will only reinvigorate the Euro-skeptic parties that in the next electoral round could take many more votes going to reach the majority of two thirds of parliament, a necessary majority to unilaterally change the Constitution.
In the last hours, however, it seems that the party of Beppe Grillo has decided to tone down and perhaps the whole purpose of the indictment could jump. This triggered the small rise highlighted in the first lines.
The first polls made after the event already seem to reward the parties of the League and the 5 Star Movement, which would be accredited, even , 90% of the seats. The scenario of Italy's default, although still remote, seems less and less improbable and would almost certainly lead to the end of the experience of the single currency.
In this scenario, assuming an exchange rate, perhaps with the US dollar (USD), is very difficult but the parity or less could be a realistic target price. There would be a run-up to refuge goods and therefore also the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) should appreciate significantly. Opposite for the emerging currencies, such as the Turkish Lira (TRY). In the case in which a stable and strongly pro-European government is formed, as could be the one led by Cottarelli, a return above 1.20 is hypothetical.
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Source: IQOption blog 2018-05-30 18:02:31
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